Playing the Draw, Pt. 3 (Poker Phil)

By POKER PHIL

The hand in question again, my friend was holding a Jc-6c with a 10c-Qc-Ks board as a short stack in a MTT. The question posed involved the plan of attack when you have a good drawing hand but haven't made your hand yet. As a short stack, what do you do in this situation? Granted there are numerous ways to play every hand, and numerous outcomes to every hand, but what do you feel is the best way to play in this situation? I stated that I loved the all-in move here and now I'll reveal what happened in the hand.

Our protagonist moved all-in on the flop and was unsure about how good his move was. He asked me how I felt about it, and I told him that I, personally, loved it. However, the outcome he endured wasn't what we had hoped. The table folded around to his all-in save for the steaming guy who limped in. After losing some of his chips, he called the all in with A-Qo. The true odds of the hand had him as a 50.5% to 48.9% favorite even though he was behind in the hand. Unfortunately his draw failed as the turn and river when rag-K and he was knocked out of the MTT. However, even though the outcome was poor, the move was still a good - and here's why.

In a tournament, this move works because of the increase of blinds and antes as the tournament progresses throughout the night. Unlike a cash game, where your blinds never increase and you can effectively nurse a stack for as long as you see fit, you have a far shorter time span with which you can nurse a short stack. Having only 10xBB before the hand and having called from the button, that leaves him with 9xBB and gives him one orbit around the table with 1,350 if he chooses to fold here. That creates a situation where the next time you push you'll have less chips and quite possibly a smaller percentage to win the hand. Hands like A-J suited become attractive for a push, but actually get called by hands like A-Qo or 8-8 and have less of a percentage to win from the preflop than our hand above has to win from the flop. Also, the pot size is considerably smaller as well as the maximum you can play for with a single all-in caller is 2,925 if you are not involved in the blinds. Here, the all-in push created a pot of 4,200. That's a greater percentage to win a pot that's 33% larger. Of course with a preflop all-in with 1,350, you'll probably draw more callers, but that actually brings your odds down even further.

So when you get short stacked, and you're going to be forced to make a move eventually, this is probably the best reasonable chance you'd have to get as much return as possible for your investment as well as the largest probability to win the hand that you'll find at this point in the tournament.

Playing the Draw, Pt. 2 (Poker Phil)

By POKER PHIL

One of the most overused phrases on a poker table is "Well, I've got outs." Of course this is usually said after an all-in showing where you realize that you're behind, bu not quite drawing dead. However, now I want to discuss the potential of playing that draw, and getting paid off on it.

Remember my last scenario. The first choice is to check the flop and give everyone a free turn card. The thought process here is that the odds of you having the best hand at the time are slim, and that a free card when you are short-stacked is a good idea in most cases. Or is it? By giving the table a free card, you are doing two things. You're giving everyone else a chance at improving what may already be a made hand. Secondly, you're taking away your percentages by nearly 50% if your card doesn't hit the turn. Now, if you are thinking of making a move, there's even less of a chance a bet will work on the river, and a greater chance that it will bring about the end of your tournament if someone should call you. Then again, if you can't make your hand on the turn, you can get out for cheap and still be alive, although your position is only going to get worse.

Making a smallish bet here is also probably the worst thing you can do. You're inviting callers into a pot that will exceed your stack size after the calling is done. This means that marginal hands with minimal drawing potential may call you from any position if you choose to push on the river. Let's say you bet 400 into the pot, that's a little more than half the pot. If you get even just one caller, that will bring the pot size up to 1550 and your stack size will only be 950. Your next bet, an all-in, will only be about 60% of the pot. That's not a good number to be throwing in a pot, especially if you're on a draw. The arguement is that you'll still have chips if you miss. With the blinds at $75-$150, a betting strategy that leaves you with 6xBB as a worst case scenario, is only going to get multiple callers to your all-in to attempt to take you down, aside from the fact that the hand you pick to move with will effectively choose you, instead of the other way around.

There's another option here: the all-in. This is a move I like a lot here. I understand that you haven't made your hand yet, and possibly not at all, but here is a situation where the table has shown great weakness. One of the limpers, as I said in the last post, had been beat out of a decent sized pot but still has a good-sized chip stack. He could either be gun shy at the moment, or he could be playing anything hoping to catch. Here's the beauty of the move - you've got more information than you need on the entire table after this flop. Let's look at the hands.

The first hand, and most dangerous hand, is obviously A-J. This makes the nut straight and leaves you drawing dead to a club. but is A-J out there? It's possible that one of the blinds is slowplaying the hand, but it stands that from the blind, a raise might want to come out to thin the herd a little, especially the other blind. In fact, the same can be said of any of those positions. The limpers were early, and one having just taken a beat on a pot. We're I playing at this table, I would have believed that someone in those positions would have raised with A-J.

Here's the beauty of it -- at worst, you're a 60%-40% dog in hand and that's ONLY if someone on the table limped in with 10-10, Q-Q, K-K and flopped a set. With the board limping and checking around, and then checking around again I think it's safe to assume that neither of those three hands are out there. Any pair at all, and you're actually a FAVORITE to win at this point in the hand, albeit only a slight favorite. Let me clarify one thing. When I say "win" I mean you're getting a piece of the pot. There are a number of hands, such as K-J, where you're a dog to win, but a favorite to not lose. If someone calls your all in with K-J then you are roughly a 36% dog to win with a 20% chance to tie...that's a 56% chance to get some of the pot. If someone calls with A-K/Q then you are 50% to win and all other combinations actually improve your chances to win the hand outright as long as the caller doesn't hold a J. The only exception to this, is if for some reason, the caller has Kc-Xc or Ac-Xc. A suited king of clubs or ace of clubs makes you a 5:1 underdog in the hand, however you have to again think if that hand is out there? It's possible, but again it's highly unlikely and the all-in here is a percentage bet, anyway.

Any called hand can reasonably be deduced as existing, leaves you as a favorite to win the hand from the flop. However there's something else to add to the picture; what if everyone folds? If everyone folds then you get the 750 in the pot and increase your chip stack to 2100. You've just increased your stack size by 40% in the hand. Of course, if someone calls than you're looking at more than a double up.

However what if two or more people call? The beauty of making a move on a nut straight draw with flush outs from the flop, is that it doesn't matter how many hands are out there....your odds NEVER decrease as long as the hand I mentioned above are not there. In fact, your chances of winning actually go UP with the fewer number of outs that are seen. If two people call, one playing K-7o and one playing A-Q with neither having a club then you actually gain a percentage point on your outs. You are 50% against the A-Q heads up, but 52% if a second hand playing K-7o exists. Now these percentage movements are minor at best, but they still increase your odds. And while your odds are getting slightly better, the pot may be three or four times larger as well.

So with multiple callers you get more of a return on your investment and a better chance to have it pay off. What's not to love about that, especially when you're the short stack on the table and time is running out. Make the all-in move, and roll the dice now since the dice are going to lean ever so slightly in your favor. Youv'e got a table showing weakness, and the best draw you can possible have without having directly gotten a piece of the flop. Next time, the results of this hand, the thoughts on the outcome, and etiquette on a poker table.

Playing the draw, Part 1

By POKER PHIL

Someone I discuss poker hands with frequently posed a question to me: When is a draw enough of a draw to truly move on it? I didn’t fully understand what he was getting at until he placed this situation before me.

He was playing from the button in a seven-table tournament with $75-$150 blinds. He’s fairly short stacked at the table with $1,500 in front of him. The tournament is down to five tables and he’s starting to feel the crunch. He peels back Jc-6c from the button. Two early limpers then a handful of folds leading up to him at the button. He calls and the blinds complete to the flop. The flop comes 10c-Qc-Ks. With a straight draw and flush draw, the table checks around to him.

He ends the scenario with him on the button and the table checking around to him. There is $750 in the pot and $1,350 in front of hi. He then asks 'What I would do?'

Now, thinking on it I have the benefit of taking all the time I want without fear of a clock called on me, or the blinds increasing on me later on. Having my move already in mind I checked my math a little more meticulously and came to the conclusion that my initial thoughts were indeed the best. Before he asks me to give him my answer he sets up the scenario on the table a little more.

He tells me nothing about the blinds, but that the first limper has a big stack and was playing extremely loose (as was the whole table for the most part). The second limper had been two hands removed from being cracked on a big hand. The second caller had about $4,000 left after taking the beat before the hand was dealt. Also, he hadn’t been on the table for more than an orbit so he had little to no read on the players save for what he saw that orbit, which was a lot of loose play.

So, now I ask you, what would you do? Think about the situation and all the possibilities and in my next entry I’ll give you insight into what I thought about the situation, his thoughts, as well as a different way at looking at the whole picture.